Page 3 - Signals

TO OUR READERS
This 2016 Signals Watch© is a supplement to the biyearly ILSI North America 2015 Science Trend ©
Report: Insights & Implications for the Future . Because events are constantly emerging, chang- ing, and reshaping research issues and opportunities, we developed this Signals Watch to capture select emerging signals that may be of interest in 2016. Unlike the full Trend Report, the Signals Watch is briefer, highlighting only events and implications for the food and nutrition elds. In this report, we use the term signals to capture early innovations or disruptions that could be indicators of what may come later (i.e., leading to a new trend or building on an existing one). For clarity on what constitutes a signal, we have used the following Institute for the Future de nition as a guide:
“A signal is typically a small or local innovation or disruption that has the potential to grow in scale and geographic distribution. A signal can be a new product, a new practice, a new market strategy, a new policy, or new technology [or research]. It can be an event, a local trend, or an organization [or movement]. It can also be a recently revealed problem or state of affairs. In short, it is something that catches our attention at one scale and in one locale and points to larger implications for other locales or even globally.
Signals are useful for people who are trying to anticipate a highly uncertain future. They tend to capture emergent [phenomena] sooner than traditional social science methods. Unlike trends, they turn our attention to possible innovations before they become obvious. Unlike indicators, they often focus our attention at the margins of society rather than the core. In this way, they are more likely to reveal disruptions and innovations. Of course, local trends and indicators can function as signals: when a trend hits a certain threshold, for example, it might be a signal of a change in the larger population, as when an innovation moves beyond the lead user stage and begins to diffuse much more rapidly.”
Methodology: Our criteria for nal selections of the signals are based on qualitative assessment and expert judgment. We used several ltering steps, including (1) identifying common threads among the various data sources used; (2) checking against prioritization of various institutions (e.g., research and policy areas identi ed in the strategic plans, missions, or visions of federal agencies [National Academy of Sciences, US Department of Health and Human Services, US Department of Agriculture, National Science Foundation, US Department of Defense, and the White House] and public and nonpro t institutions [World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations, Pan American Health Organization, European Food Safety Authority,
Food Standards Australia New Zealand, Health Canada, Pew Foundation, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and New York Academy of Sciences]); (3) culling publicly available data from consumer market research analyses and select publications and citations; (4) gathering opinions from aca- demic scientists; and (5) conducting a review of the results, led by an internal trend review scienti c advisory panel of the ILSI North America Board of Trustees.
Limitations to the Signals Watch: Signals captured here are limited to what we have identi ed in
the public literature. This report is meant to stimulate awareness of emerging indicators and is not meant to be used as the source for quantitative analysis or de nitive conclusions. For more insights on particular trends, we invite you to download the 2015 Science Trend Report, which offers deeper and broader insights and implications for emerging trends.
Chor San Khoo, PhD
ILSI North America Senior Science Fellow